丝绸之路经济带9省区国内旅游成长及增长惯性分析

Domestic tourism growth and the crisis inertial measurement for nine provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt

系统搜集1995年-2014年丝绸之路经济带国内旅游客流量、旅游收入、GDP等数据序列,分析丝绸之路经济带国内旅游成长历程,借鉴物理学领域和经济学领域的惯性模型,提出旅游惯性概念,构建旅游惯性指标模型,研究结果表明：1）依据全域旅游成长分析,经过测算,不同典型年份旅游危机周期效应不同,旅游发展惯性强度也不同;2）丝绸之路经济带国内旅游客流量和旅游收入惯性强度在2003年以及2008年大致同步,规律明显;3）旅游惯性不同反应本区的不同抗危机能力,依据本区旅游成长分析与惯性测定,可评估本区可能产生旅游危机以及划定惯性级别,构建本底趋势模型进行趋势判定。文中采用定量指标体系衡量区域旅游发展的惯性强度,以期能够在理论上深化本区旅游研究,实践上为本区旅游发展以及旅游危机管理提供参考,为旅游危机操控体系的构建奠定基础。

We collected data sequence systematically from 1995 to 2014, including domestic tourist traffic, tourist income, the GDP and so on along the silk road economic belt, then analyzed domestic tourism development history in the silk road economic belt. We applied inertia model in the field of physics and economics to build tourism inertia index model, and got the results： 1 ） Different typical years had different effects of tourism crisis cycle and different intensity of tourism development inertia according to global tourism growth analysis. 2 ） The inertia strength of domestic tourism traffic and tourism income in the silk road economic belt was roughly synchronization in 2003 and 2008, and the regularity was obvious. 3 ） Different tourist inertias reflected the ability to resist crisis. According to the analysis of of tourism crisis and delimit regional tourism development and the inertial measurement, we could evaluate the level the inertia level, build the background trend model to forecast the future