辽宁省气候变化与厄尔尼诺相关性分析

Analysis on relationship between climate change of Liaoning Province with ENSO

为了探讨近50年来辽宁省气候变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺的关系,文章根据1965—2013年辽宁省23个气象站点的降水、年均气温数据与表征厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)事件的热带太平洋海表温度距平和南方涛动指数资料,利用气候倾向率、M-K突变检验以及反距离权重插值等方法进行分析研究,结果表明:1965—2013年辽宁省降水量由东南向西北逐渐减少,在多个时间段内发生突变现象;气温有显著的上升趋势,并在空间上呈现由东北向西南逐渐增加的趋势;降水变化与ENSO事件强度存在着一定的负相关性,而气温变化与ENSO事件强度没有显著的相关性。

In order to discuss the relationship between the climate change of Liaoning Province with ENSO, the paper used the methods of climate liner trend analysis, M-K mutation test and inverse distance weighted interpolation method（IDW）to analyze the changes in temperature and precipitation and their relationship with ENSO, according to the annual precipitation and temperature data from 23 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province, and characterization of ENSO tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA ）and the Southern Oscillation Index（SOI）data during 1965--2013. Result showed that annual precipitation of Liaoning in 1965 2013 decreased gradually from southeast to northwest, and there occurred mutation in multiple periods; the temperature had a significant upward trend, increasing gradually from northeast to southwest in space; moreover, in Liaoning there was a negative correlation between precipitation change and the intensity of ENSO events, while the intensity of the temperature change had no significant correlation with ENSO events.