基于模糊数学法评价甲基溴及其替代技术

Evaluation of Methyl Bromide and Alternative Technologies Based on Fuzzy Mathematics Method

为履行《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》规定,运用模糊数学综合评判法,探讨了甲基溴及其替代技术在土壤熏蒸过程中的各项因素,构建了作物产量、作物品质、病虫害防治效果、技术安全、操作过程、环境影响、应用时长和投入成本8个指标集,并划分了模糊评判集,综合评估了生姜、草莓作物甲基溴及其替代技术。生姜作物综合评估结果为甲基溴(83.61)>氯化苦(79.06)>棉隆(78.03)>威百亩(69.07),草莓作物综合评估结果为甲基溴(69.13)>氯化苦(64.60)>棉隆(56.80)。各单项指标评价结果表明,甲基溴在作物产量、作物品质、防治效果以及应用时长等4个指标上均高于各项替代技术,但由于自身毒性、对臭氧层物质消耗以及受生产管控等因素的影响,在其余指标上低于替代技术;氯化苦在作物产量、作物品质和病虫害防治效果等6项指标上均高于其他替代技术,但由于为剧毒农药,而在技术安全和操作过程2项指标上低于其余替代技术。以上结果表明,生姜作物和草莓作物主流替代技术的消毒效果并不具备甲基溴的广谱性,当前最佳替代技术为氯化苦。

To fulfill The Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances, fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation method was used to discuss the effect of methyl bromide and its alternatives on the process of soil fumigation. The factors ineluded crop yields, crop quality, pest control, technical safety, technical operation, environmental impact and costs, which were divided into fuzzy evaluation set to assess effect of methyl bromide and its alternatives on tile ginger and strawberry comprehensively. The results showed that the order of effect on ginger was bromide （83.61）〉chloropicrin （79.06）〉dazomet （78.03）〉metam sodium （69.07）, the order of effect on strawberry was bromide （69.13）〉chloropicrin （64.60）〉dazomet（56.80）. The comprehensive results showed that methyl bromide was higher than the alternatives in four factors such as crop yields, crop quality, control effect and time of technical operations, but it was worse than the alternatives because of the toxMty of methyl bromide and its consumption of 03 as well as production controlling. Chloropicrin was better than other ahernatives in six indicators ineluding crop yields, crop quality and pest control, but it was a highly toxic pesticide so that it was worse than other alternatives in the process of technical and operational safety. These results suggested that the effect of mainstream alternatives on the ginger and strawben＇y did not have the broad spectrum of methyl bromide, and currently, chloropicrin was the best alternative technology.