国内增值税税收收入能力与税收努力量化研究

Quantitative Study of the Theoretical Liability of Domestic VAT and Tax Effort

在全面推开营业税改征增值税下,为客观量化研究我国国内增值税税收收入能力及税收努力状况,本文借鉴该领域国际先进理论和经验做法,立足税收管理现状和信息化技术资源优势,利用某省国税局2006-2014年度经济税收数据,建立随机边界模型研究国内增值税税收收入能力和税收努力,结果发现国内增值税税收收入能力的平均增速与同期GDP平均增速保持同步,略低于实际税收平均增速;国内增值税税收努力总体上逐年提高,并呈现高位微幅波动。

For the objective and quantitative study of the theoretical liability of domestic VAT and tax effort under the background of changing business tax to VAT, this paper establishes stochastic frontier model to study theoretical liability of domestic VAT and tax effort with provincial IRS 2006-2014 annual economic data which draws international advanced theory and experience in the field, basing on the tax management and information technology resources. The results found that the average growth rate of domestic VAT keeps pace with GDP growth at the same period, slightly lower than the average actual growth rate of domestic VAT; The tax effort of domestic VAT overall rapidly upgrade, followed by a slight fluctuation on a high level.