松动与重固:朴槿惠时期韩美日三角关系的曲折发展

Flexibility and Reconsolidation:Tortuous Development of ROK-U.S.-Japan Triangular Relations in the Park Geun-hye Period

朴槿惠就任总统之初,由于韩日关系持续恶化,韩美对华政策出现分歧,韩国对朝推行"信任外交",韩美日三角关系一度出现松动的迹象,韩国"倾中论"开始蔓延。然而,进入2015年以来,随着韩日关系的改善,韩美合作的加强,朝核危机的刺激和纠正"倾中论"的声音甚嚣尘起,朴槿惠一改前半任期的政策,重新寻求巩固韩美日三边合作。尽管未来韩美日三角关系的发展存在韩日关系走向、美日中因素影响、国内选举结果等诸多变数,但朴槿惠在余下任期内会继续谨慎地推动三边合作的进程。对此,中国一方面要冷静应对,把握中韩友好的大局;另一方面也要警惕美国借机暗推美日韩同盟建设的企图。

At the beginning of the Park Geun-hye Administration,the further deterioration of ROK-Japan relations led to divergence between ROK and U.S. in policies toward China and the' Trustpolitik 'was highly regarded by Park,the ROK-U.S.-Japan triangular relations became loosened and the view that ROK preferred to a pro-China policy was widely disseminated. However,since 2015,improvements of ROK-Japan relations,consolidations of ROK-U.S. cooperation,eruption of the 4thDPRK nuclear crisis,and claims on modifying the pro-China policy contribute to the policy adjustments of Park,encouraging her to reconsolidate the ROK-U.S.-Japan triangular cooperation. Although future development of ROK-U.S.-Japan relations depends on factors such as ROK-Japan relations,influences of U.S.,Japan,and China and the outcomes of ROK elections,Park will promote the triangular relations cautiously in her remaining term. Therefore,China should cautiously response to policy changes of ROK and remain the Sino-ROK friendship. On the other hand,China has to be vigilant to the U.S. ambitious on building a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance.