市场潜能、预期收入与跨省人口流动——基于空间计量模型的分析

Market Potential,Expected Wages and Interprovincial Migration——Based on Spatial Econometrics Model

综合新经济地理学模型与迁移效应函数,本文构建了包含市场潜能和预期收入的人口迁移理论模型,并采用空间计量模型及其稳健性检验进行了中国数据的实证分析。研究结果表明:市场潜能和预期收入及其空间溢出效应对人口迁入有显著的促进作用,但是两者对人口迁移的作用路径不同,市场潜能仅对本地区有直接正向作用,对相邻地区的空间溢出效应不明显,相邻地区则对本地区的人口迁移存在负向反馈效应;而预期收入对本身以及相邻地区的影响为正向,相邻地区的预期收入反馈效应也为正;地区的人口密度和消费水平则对人口迁移有显著的负向作用。

Based on the new economic geography model and migration effect function, this paper built the migration model within the integration of market potential and expected income. Then based on the Chinese data and spatial econometric model, the empirical analysis was conducted. The empirical results show that market potential, expected wages and their spatial spillover effects have positive and significant effects on the migration, but their pathways of effecting are quite different. Market potential only had a direct positive effect on the region itself, and its spillover effect on the neighboring regions was not significant, furthermore, its feedback effect was negative. The impact of expected wages on the region itself and neighboring regions was positive and significant, Meanwhile, its feedback effect was positive. In addition, population density and consumption levels of areas had significant positive effects on migration, while house price had significant impact on population migration.