电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素建模

Modelling of Human Risk Factors During Power Grid Dispatching Operation

从工程实用的角度出发,对电网调度操作过程中的人员风险因素如何建模进行了研究。基于省中调的主要调度模式,通过综合分析调度指令由拟令到下发再到执行的整个流程中,人的因素可能对调度操作带来的风险,将人员风险因素分别从历史层面和实时层面进行了数学建模,其中,人员风险因素的历史因子包括上岗时间、技能水平、责任心和历史失误率等;实时因子包括本次操作任务的强度、操作的时间段、工作人员疲劳度和心理情绪等。据此,进一步提出了基于指数型综合评估函数的人员风险因素量化模型,并以广东省为例,针对广东中调的一些典型操作进行了算例分析。结果表明,所提出的人员风险因素模型为量化人的因素可能导致电网调度操作面临的风险严重性提供了较好的评估依据,是电网调度操作风险量化评估的前提与基础。目前,该模型已在广东电网获得实际应用。

Modelling of human risk factors during power grid dispatching operation is studied from the perspective of practical engineering.Based on the main dispatching modes of the province,the potential dispatching risk of human factors during the whole process of dispatching orders is comprehensively analyzed,from planning,sending down to carrying out orders.Then a mathematical model each for human risk factors of historical and real-time ones is developed respectively.Human risk factors including working years,skill level,sense of responsibility,historical error rate and so on are considered in historical human factors.And operation intensity,time interval,dispatchers＇ fatigue degree,mental emotion and so on are included in real-time human factors.Then based on exponential synthetic assessment,a human factor＇s risk quantified model is proposed.Finally,numerical examples of Guangdong electric power dispatching are simulated to show that the model proposed has provided a fairly good assessment basis to be aware of the severity that quantifying the human factors may lead to the risks faced by humans during power grid dispatching,which will turn out to be the premise and foundation for quantifying the assessment of power grid dispatching risks.