和田市2010-2014年肠道传染病流行特征时间序列分析

Epidemiological characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city,2010-2014: a time series analysis

目的了解新疆和田市2010—2014年肠道传染病流行特征,探索时间序列模型在肠道传染病预测中的应用。方法导出中国疾病监测信息报告系统中2010年1月—2014年12月和田市痢疾和其它感染性腹泻的病例资料,应用Excel 2010软件进行描述性分析,SPSS 18.0软件对月报告病例数进行时间序列分析,并利用拟合模型对2015年1—3月报告病例数进行预测。结果和田市每年报告的肠道传染病病例数较少,发病高峰期和高发年龄段均较明显,5—9月报告的病例数占全年病例数的89.37%,<5岁儿童占全部病例数的54.02%。最佳模型为简单季节性模型,模型残差序列为白噪声。结论夏秋季节应关注学龄前儿童的卫生状况,避免腹泻影响儿童健康发育。简单季节性模型对肠道传染病拟合效果较好,在下一步工作中可结合病原学监测结果做进一步分析。

Objective To examine epidemiological characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city and to explore the application of time series analysis for the prediction of the diseases. Methods Records of intestinal infectious disease cases （dysentery and other infectious diarrhea） reported in Hetian city of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region between 2010 and 2014 were extracted from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive analyses were performed with Excel 2010 and time series analysis was conducted with SPSS 18.0. The time series model established was used to predict monthly incidents of intestinal infectious diseases from January to March 2015. Results In Hetian city during the 5-year period,the annual incidents of intestinal infectious diseases reported were relatively low;89. 37% of the cases were reported from March to September during a year and 54. 02% of the reported cases were children under 5 years old. Simple seasonal model was the best forecast model for intestinal infectious disease epidemic and residuals of this model were white noise. Conclusion More attention should be paid to improve hygienic status among preschool children in the summer and autumn to prevent the incidence of diarrhea. Simple seasonal model could well fit to the incidents of intestinal infectious diseases in Hetian city.