中韩FTA对东亚的经济影响——基于GTAP模型的模拟分析

Sino-Korea FTA's Influence on East Asian's Economy: A Simulation Analysis Based on the GTAP Model

基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP及中韩FTA的实际降税幅度,分析中韩FTA对东亚的经济影响。研究发现,中韩FTA将对中国大陆、韩国带来正的经济效应,且韩国的经济改善幅度要大于大陆,但东亚其他经济体将遭受经济冲击,其中,台湾、日本所受冲击将更为显著;大陆的渔业、采矿业、食品加工业、制造业以及韩国的制造业将受益于中韩FTA的建立,出口普遍增长;东亚其他经济体的产品出口所受影响会有所不同,但出口受阻较为严重的经济体为香港、日本、台湾。

Based on the actual tariff reduction range of Sino-Korea FTA, the paper analyzes the Sino-Korea FTA＇s influence on East Asian Economies with the GTAP model. According to the research, Sino-Korea FTA will bring positive economic effects on both China's Mainland and Korea, and in addition, the economic improvement of Korea will be greater than that of China's Mainland. However, the economy of the other East Asian Economies will be deteriorated, and Taiwan and Japan will be impacted most obviously; the fishery, mining industry, food processing, manufacturing industry of China's Mainland and the manufacturing industry of Korea will benefit from the establishment of Sino- Korea FTA, and meanwhile, the two countries will see a great rise in export; the industries of the other East Asian Economies will suffer from different degrees of impact, however, the export of Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan will be blocked distinctly.