中国投资推动“一带一路”沿线国家发展——基于面板VAR模型的分析

The Driving of China's Investment on the National Development of Countries along One Belt One Road: An Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model

共建“一带一路”是中国深化区域合作，推动全球和平发展的重要战略。对外直接投资是中国影响世界，对世界做出贡献的重要手段。文章采用“一带一路”沿线55个国家2003—2013年的面板数据。构建面板VAR模型，验证中国向沿线国家的直接投资与沿线国家经济增长的互动关系。结果表明，中国向沿线国家的直接投资在统计上显著提高了沿线国家的人均实际GDP，该影响效应能持续7年左右，并在2～3年后达到峰值。自2003年以来，在控制其他因素不变的情况下，中国向沿线国家的直接投资合共促进沿线国家人均实际GDP增长仅约为2％。对沿线国家的经济增长贡献率不足8％，中国的推动作用有待加强。同时，沿线国家的经济发展情况越好，越能吸引中国的投资，中国企业决定是否向沿线国家投资及投资额的大小，一般会考虑沿线国家最近10年左右的经济发展情况。

Building ＂One Belt One Road＂ is an important strategy of China to deepen regional cooperation and promote global development peacefully. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment is an important means of China to influence and contribute to the world. This paper adopts the 2003 -2013 panel data of the countries along One Belt One Road to construct the panel VAR model and verify the interaction between China＇s direct investment and these countries＇ economic growth. The results show that China＇s direct investment to these countries significantly increases their real GDP per capita. This kind of effect can last about seven years and get to the peak in 2~3 years. Since 2003, in the case of controlling for other factors constant, China＇s direct investment in these countries has only made their per capita real GDP grow about 2 %, but the contribution rate to their economic growth is lower than 8% in total, which means that China＇s promoting role still needs to be strengthened. Meanwhile, if the economic development of these countries is better, it will attract more Chinese investment. Chinese companies usually consider the country＇s economic development for the last 10 years or so to decide whether or not to invest and what is the size of investment.