考古学中的时间不确定性及其数学解决方案

Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeology and the Solution in Statistics

考古学研究中时间的不确定性是一个普遍的问题,而概率是表达考古学时间不确定性的一种有效方式。利用概率表达的时间可以借助统计学的方法定量处理,蒙特卡洛随机模拟则是其中一种有效的手段。本文以区域系统调查陶片的断代和碳十四测年样品的等时段分布为例介绍了简单的蒙特卡洛方法的应用及其在解决考古学时间不确定性方面的优势。

Temporal uncertainty is a common issue in archaeological analysis which could be well solved in the way of statistics based on the probabilities of archaeological time. Monte Carlo simulation is an effective method. This paper provides two examples on the diagnosis of pottery shards from regi- onal systematic survey and even time block distribution of radio carbon 14 data. These two case studies show a lot of advantages of the application of Monte Carlo method on the archaeological research of time.