黄河上中游水土保持减沙效果研究

Sediment Reduction Effect of Soil and Water Conservation in the Up and Middle Yellow River

采用逐步回归方法,对1954—2012年黄河年输沙量、降水量和水土流失治理度数据分3个时段进行了计算,分析认为:水土流失治理度较好地"解释"了20世纪80年代以来黄河年输沙量锐减的现象,回归方程的显著性水平均达到α=0.001;在1967—1987年时段,相同降雨条件下,水土流失治理度的提高不仅显著减少了黄河年输沙量,而且使年输沙量对降雨的响应趋于"迟缓",在1988—2012年时段,仅由水土流失治理度一个因子就能够很好地"解释"黄河年输沙量的变化;在水土流失治理度超过55%时,计算年输沙量仅1.2亿t,以80%的置信度,黄河年输沙量将小于5亿t。

The paper calculated and analyzed the data of annual sediment delivery,precipitation and control degree of soil and water loss of the Yellow River in the period of 1954 to 2012 which was divided into 3 intervals used by stepwise regression method. It deems that a) the control degree of soil and water loss has well 'explained'the phenomenon of sharp reduction of annual sediment delivery of the Yellow River since the 1980 s and the significance level of regression equation has reached to α = 0.001; b) in the interval of 1967 to 1987,under the same precipitation conditions,the increase of soil and water loss control degree has not only significantly reduced the annual sediment delivery of the Yellow River but also made the response of annual sediment delivery to rainfall tending slow and; c) in the interval of 1988 to 2012,only one factor of soil and water loss control degree can fairly'explained'the variation of annual sediment delivery of the river and. When the soil and water loss control degree exceeds 55%,the calculation of annual sediment delivery is less than 200 million tons. Taking 80% as a confidence level,the annual sediment delivery of the Yellow River will be smaller than 500 million tons.