“谷贱伤农”缓解现象及其缓冲机制研究

Research on Reversal Phenomenon for Problem of “Cheap Grain Harms Peasants” and Its Reversal Mechanisms

结合我国国情,对传统"谷贱伤农"的限定条件进行修正后发现,在1983-2013年间,我国出现了"谷贱伤农"的缓解现象,即31年间,种粮农民面临的"谷贱伤农"指数是逐渐走低的。农民劳均粮食耕种纯收入在丰年不仅没有减少,反而有所增加。"谷贱伤农"之所以出现缓解现象,是因为背后存在着4个缓冲机制,分别是:农业生产技术进步、农村剩余劳动力非农转移、粮食需求刚性增长和国家惠农政策持续跟进。上述缓冲机制均得到了格兰杰因果检验的证明。

Analysis shows that there is a reversal phenomenon for the problem named＂cheap grain harms peasants＂in China from 1983~2013if the limit conditions of＂cheap grain harms the peasants＂is adjusted based on Chinese reality.That is to say,grain farmers face a gradual declining hurt index from grain＇s revenue during the 31 years.Instead of decrease,the net income of each labor in grain increases in abundant years.Four reversal mechanisms exist behind the reversal phenomenon.The four reversal mechanisms are：reversal mechanism of technical progress in agriculture,reversal mechanism of non-agricultural transfer of surplus rural labors,reversal mechanism of increase of grains＇ demand,and reversal mechanism of beneficial policies in agriculture formulated one by one.And the above reversal mechanisms are proved by Granger tests.