金融抑制对我国区域经济增长的影响

The impact of financial repression on regional economic growth in China

金融抑制与我国区域经济增长呈显著的正相关,通过构建金融抑制与我国区域经济增长影响关系数学模型,预测区域经济增长的可靠性,提高决策部门宏观调控能力.以我国区域经济发展八大区域为研究对象,提出基于最大Lyapunove指数分析的区域经济增长预测模型,定量预测金融抑制对我国区域经济增长指数的影响.通过构建金融抑制对我国区域经济增长约束参量模型,对经济增长指数时间序列进行分析,提取时间序列的最大Lyapunove特征,在分析不同经济增长统计区域金融相关率样本集合的基础上,结合SVM进行训练,实现区域经济增长预测.数据仿真分析得出,该方法能有效拟合金融抑制对我国区域经济增长的关系模型,实现对区域经济增长的准确预测,精度较高,可靠性较好.

Financial repression in China has significant positive correlation. By building financial repression and the mathematical model of the relationship of the regional economic growth in China, the reliability of the regional economic growth can be estimated, improving the macro- control ability of decision-making departments. With eight large area in China as the research object, the largest Lyapunove prediction model is proposed for regional economic growth index analysis and to quantitatively forecast financial inhibition effects on China＇s regional economic growth index. By building the financial repression constraint parameter model, the growth in- dex of time series is analyzed to extract the largest Lyapunove features of time series. Based on the analysis of the financial related statistical region of the different economic growth, on the basis of sample collection, in combination with the SVM training, regional economic growth forecasts are realized. Simulation show that, this method can effectively fit model on the rela- tionship between the regional economic growth in China financial repression, economic growth for the area of aceurating prediction of high precision, good reliability, showing a good applica- tion value.