不同阶段货币国际化的影响因素研究

Research on Determinants of Currency Internationalization in Different Periods

本文将18种货币分为已国际化、未完全国际化和待国际化货币组,分别对应货币国际化的后期、中期和初期,利用可行广义最小二乘估计(FGLS)考察货币国际化的影响因素是否因阶段而异,并借助基于自举法的面板格兰杰因果检验(Bootstrap Granger Causality Test)探究货币国际化是否反作用于经济影响因素。研究发现,惯性始终与国际化程度呈正相关,其他因素则表现出阶段性特征。初期,经济实力和币值稳定是货币国际化的主要助力,出口份额的扩大可能因为选择计价结算货币时对国际货币的偏好而阻碍自身的国际化;中期金融市场发展的重要性凸显;出口的扩大以及良好的经济预期是后期巩固国际货币地位的关键因素。货币国际化的福利效应在中期全面显现,后期对经济的推动作用仅体现在出口和金融市场发展方面。

In this paper, 18 currencies are divided into 3 groups： internationalized, incompletely internationalized and potentially internationalized, representing three periods of currency internationalization respectively-the late, medium and ini- tial period. FGLS method is used to investigate whether the determinants of currency internationalization have been funda- mentally altered from one period to another. Then whether currency internationalization affects the determinants or not is ana- lyzed by means of Bootstrap Granger Causality Test. Our findings suggest that currency inertia is always critical and other de- terminants have been characterized along with different stages. Issuing country＇s economic strength and stability of currency value have positive effect. Large share of export has negative effect on initial currency internationalization maybe just because exporters tend to select preferred international currency as invoicing and settlement currency. Financial market development matters in the medium period. Increase in export as well as optimistic economic expectation are significant in preserving the status of international currency. Results also show that welfare effect of currency internationalization does not occur until the medium period and only export and financial markets profit from currency internationalization in the late period.