摘要
风电出力的随机性和间歇性使得风电在接入发电系统时会对发电系统可靠性造成影响。考虑到风电出力与负荷之间存在一定的相关性,提出了一种基于模糊聚类的风电场多状态可靠性模型。模型根据风电场出力与负荷数据的分布情况,使用两维模糊聚类对数据进行状态划分,并计算各状态之间的转移概率,最后通过序贯蒙特卡罗模拟对含风电场发电系统进行可靠性评估。算例分析结果表明,所建模型能够很好地模拟出风电场出力和负荷的分时序列,且可靠性分析结果准确有效。
The randomness and intermittent of wind power output will affect the reliability of the power generation system when the wind power Js connected to the power generation system. Considering the correlation between wind power output and load, a multi-state reliability model of wind farm based on fuzzy clustering is proposed in this paper. Model based on wind farm output and the distribution of load data, using a two dimensional fuzzy clustering to divide the state of data, and calculate the transition probabilities between the States. Fin- ally, through sequential Monte Carlo simulation of wind power generation system reliability assessment. The numerical example shows that the proposed model can simulate the time series of wind farm output and load, and the reliability analysis results are more accurate.
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
北大核心
2016年第7期138-142,共5页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
江苏省产学研合作项目(BY2015019-30)
淮安市科技计划社会发展项目(HAS2015016)
淮安市光电池及LED技术重点实验室项目(HAP0912)~~
关键词
风电场
模糊聚类
相关性分析
可靠性分析
wind farm
fuzzy clustering
correlation analysis
reliability analysis
