社会保障与技术进步动态组合的经济发展驱动路径分析

Analysis of the dynamic combination of path of engine on economic development between social security technology innovation

采用DSEG理论分析框架建立了社会保障与技术创新、技术扩散的动力系统模型来研究其对中国经济增长与经济波动的影响。基于中国2000-2014年的经济数据对动力系统模型进行校准与数值模拟结果显示,模型能够较好地拟合目前的经济形势,解释力达到了81.76%,方差分解与IR分析结果表明,与社会保障冲击在短期内与引发的经济波动不同,技术创新技术扩散变量冲击能够在更大程度上并且持续地增加潜在的技术存量,从而,促使生产部门进行更多的研究与试验性发展投入,使得经济产出在更高水平上达到均衡。然而,社会保障对经济的影响效应体现在对其它经济变量的"传递"和"联动"方面。社会保障投入的正向冲击能够对就业、技术存量等具有正向的传递效应;而与工资的"联动性"能够对经济产出产生更大的提升作用,从而使得中国经济不断地达到新的更高均衡水平。

In this paper, we use the DSEG theory to establish the dynamic system model of social security and technological innovation and technology diffusion, and we study its influence on China＇ s economic growth and economic fluctuations. Based on the economic data of 2000 - 2014, the model can be calibrated, and the numerical simulation results show that the model fits the current economic situation better. The variance decomposition and IR analysis show that the impact of technological innovation and technoIogical innovation technology can increase the potential stock of technology in the short term. However, the effect of social security on the economy is reflected in the ＂transfer＂ and ＂linkage＂ of other economic variables. The positive impact of social security investment can have a positive transfer effect on employment, technological stock, while the ＂linkage＂ with the wage can produce a greater impact on the economic output, which makes the Chinese economy continue to reach a new higher level of equilibrium.