中国城市全要素生产率的测算与分解(1998—2013)——基于参数型生产前沿法

On the Measurement and Decomposition of China's Urban Total Productivity( 1998-2013) ——Based on the SFA

本文采用1998—2013年全国223个地级及以上城市的面板数据,运用参数型生产前沿法测算并分解了城市全要素生产率,分析了其时序增长和空间分布特征,得出研究结论如下:(1)1998—2013年期间,城市全要素生产率呈缓慢下降趋势,样本期间累计下降12.16%;(2)通过对随机前沿生产模型进行似然比检验发现样本期间技术进步不显著,印证了克鲁格曼"东亚无奇迹"的观点,并对技术进步不显著的原因进行了猜测;(3)生产效率总体呈改进状态,样本期间累计上升了17.08%,且生产效率改进呈现出比较明显的层次性。东部地区改进程度明显高于中西部地区,副省级及以上城市改进程度明显高于地级城市,中国城市生产效率呈现出强者愈强的"马太效应";(4)规模效应呈逐年下降的趋势,样本期间累计下降29.23%,规模效应变化是抑制全要素生产率提升的主要因素,规模效应变化也呈现出微弱的层次性。

Using the 1998 - 2013 panel data of 223 local cities in China, with SFA method, this paper calculates and decom- poses the urban total factor productivity, analyzes its sequential growth and spatial distribution characteristics. The research conclusions are as follows： （1）From 1998 to 2013, the total factor productivity of the cities showed a trend of slow decline and it fell by 8. 61% cumulatively; （2）From the results of the model＇s likelihood ratio test, we found no significant technical progress during the sample period. In this paper, we give a speculation for the reason why the technical progress is not obvious; （3）Overall, the production efficiency is improved in the sample period, it rose by 17.08% cumulatively. The production effi- ciency improvement presents obvious gradation. With the factor advantage, policy advantage and location advantage, the east- ern region improvement was significantly higher than the middle and western regions, deputy provincial cities＇ improvements were significantly higher than that of the local cities. Production efficiency in our country presents the strong stronger ＂Matthew effect＂ ; The scale effects showed a downward trend year by year, it dropped by 29.23% cumulatively in the sample period, and the scale effect change was the main inhibition of total factor productivity improvement, scale effects change also shows a weak gradation. Due to attracting more inputs, the scale effects of the eastern region and the deputy provincial cities dropped