金融市场开放下中国最优货币政策规则选择

The Optimal Monetary Policy under the Increasingly Open Financial Market

随着中国改革开放的深入,特别是金融市场开放程度的提高,相机抉择的货币政策执行难度不断加大,学术界对于按一定规则制定货币政策的呼声也持续升温。金融市场开放条件下中央银行货币政策规则该如何选择?本文通过构建开放经济宏观经济模型,模拟得出不同金融市场开放度下的各主要利率规则的效果及福利损失。研究结果表明,金融市场开放主要会导致宏观经济短期受国外冲击影响波动变大,尤其是受国外利率冲击的影响,长期在利率规则作用下经济恢复均衡,且盯住国内通胀规则在金融市场开放度较低时较为适用,金融市场开放度较高时传统泰勒规则较优。同时也启示我们,在坚持逐步开放金融的同时必须加快利率市场化改革的步伐,促进货币政策利率传导渠道的畅通,从而使利率规则在金融市场不断开放过程中应对宏观经济可能面临的各种冲击时发挥有效作用。

The increasingly open Chinese financial market, with the process of reform and opening up policy extending to financial area, has gradually invalidated the current discretionary monetary policy operated by the Central Bank of China and more scholars appeal to specific monetary policy rule. This paper constructs an NOEM to model the performance and welfare loss of three main interest-rate rules under different exogenous shocks. It shows that under the increasingly open financial market, the economy would fluctuate widely after the foreign shocks, especially the foreign interest-rate shock and in the long run it would reach equilibrium by the effect of interest rate rule. The domestic-inflation targeting rule is more suitable for the lower-level openness of financial market while the traditional Taylor Rule is better matched with higher-level openness. In order to make better use of the interest rate channel of monetary policy, the Central Bank should insist on marketizing interest rate and reforming the capital market in the process of financial market opening up.