中国政府债务可持续性研究——基于E29的财政反应函数

Sustainability Analysis of China's Debt Based on Fiscal Reaction Function of 29 Emerging Economies

基于一般均衡条件下的代际预算约束模型,本文选取时间跨度为2000-2014年的29个新兴经济体国家的面板数据,检验新兴经济体的财政反应函数,在此基础上,测算中国政府债务的上限。结果表明,政府负债率理论上限为130.50%,历年实际负债率上限处于84.81%-93.04%之间,就实际负债率而言,政府债务具有可持续性,且可持续的空间较大。本文进一步设计压力情景,研究宏观经济环境变动对政府债务可持续性的影响发现,利率的变动与负债率上限呈反向关系;经济增长率的变动与负债率上限变动存在正向关系;负债率的上限随经济规模对稳态值的正向偏离程度的减小而降低,随经济规模对稳态值的负向偏离程度的减小而提高;负债率上限随财政支出对稳态值正向偏离的增大而下降,随财政支出对稳态值的负向偏离上升而增加。总的来说,中国政府债务是可持续的,压力测试的结果也较为乐观,但影响债务可持续的风险依然存在。

Based on inter-temporal budget constraint model, general equilibrium and panel data of 29 emerging economies from 2000 to 2014 are picked to test the fiscal reaction function of E29. We calculate China＇s maximum debt ratio, which is 91.42%. Compared to the real debt ratio, China＇s government debt stays sustainable and has a large space to the maximum. Furthermore, we assume three kinds of scenes to analyze the influences of changes of macroeconomic factors on the snstainability. We find that economic growth rate decrease will result in a climbing maximum debt ratio, GDP volatility reduction will lead to a dropping maximum debt ratio, and positive volatility increase of fiscal expenditure will generate a descending maximum debt ratio. In a word, there is sustainability on China＇s public debt and the result of stress testing tends to be active. But risks influencing on China＇s debt still exist.