摘要
讨论改进的Gompertz模型两种参数估计方法:三和法和非线性最小二乘估计法,并通过蒙特卡洛实验比较两种估计方法的精度和收敛率,得出非线性最小二乘估计法在估计精度和估计的成功率两方面都优于三和法的结论;利用Gompertz曲线拟合中国电影票房数据并对其未来发展作出预测:中国电影票房最终可以在2025年左右到达饱和状态,饱和状态总规模大约为1 676.5亿元。
This paper mainly discusses two parameter estimation methods of modified Gompertz model： three-sums method and nonlinear least squares estimation method, and through Monte Carlo experiments the two estimation methods are compared in terms of estimation accuracy and success rate, we conclude that nonlinear least squares estimation method is superior to three-sums method in both estimation accuracy and success rate. Moreover, the paper also uses Gompertz model to fit the Chinese film box office data and forecasts its future development.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第9期17-21,共5页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目<广义可加混合模型及其应用研究>(14CTJ011)
