1966—2015年高淳降水特征分析

Analysis of the Precipitation Characteristics for Gaochun during the Period from 1966 to 2015

该文利用1966—2015年降水数据分析了高淳近50a降水年、年际、四季、月和极端降水、降水相对变率的变化情况,结果表明:降水量波动较大并呈上升趋势。春、秋、冬季各年代际之间差异较小,春季和秋季呈先升后降的趋势,夏季呈波动上升的趋势,冬季呈缓慢上升的趋势,四季与年降水量都呈正相关关系。各月降水量分配不均,各月降水量的气候倾向率差异明显,夏季降水增多趋势十分明显;降水日数呈现上升下降再上升的趋势;暴雨日数呈缓慢增长的趋势,近50a大暴雨日数基本持平。近50a涝年有4a,高淳旱年的有5a;极端降水事件的阀值为38.2mm,极端降水事件年际波动很大。

Based on the precipitation data from 1966 to 2015, annual inter-annual and monthly precipitation change, precipitation change in four seasons, extreme precipitation and relative variability of precipitation was analyzed. Re- suits show that precipitation fluctuation was large,precipitation was growing with a rising trend. Inter-annual precipi- tation change was small between spring, autumn and winter, spring and autumn precipitation rose first and fall later, summer rose like wave and winter rose slowly. There was a positive correlation between four seasons and annual pre- cipitation. Monthly precipitation wasn＇t average, monthly climatic trend rate was obviously different, the rising trend of summer precipitation was obvious, precipitation days showed increase- decrease- increase trend, storm rainfall days rose slowly, heavy rainstorm days was flat in resent 50 years. The number of flood year in Gaochun was 4, and drought year was 5. The threshold value of extreme precipitation event in Gaochun was 38.2mm, the number of extreme precipitation event fluctuated greatly