摘要
文章基于中国1999—2014年的省级数据,运用贝叶斯模型平均方法(BMA)从新方法和新视角检验了自然禀赋与经济增长之间的关系。通过对比资源禀赋的多种衡量指标的后验包含概率,以及前五位概率最优的单一模型,发现"资源诅咒"在中国不存在的结论。此外,文章进一步对研究样本进行拆分,发现相对于东、中部地区,西部地区在采矿业具有比较优势,易诱发"资源诅咒"现象出现。
The paper examined the relationship between natural endowments and economic growth from a new method and new perspective using a Bayesian Model Averaging （BMA） method based on Chinese provincial data from 1999 to 2014. By comparing the posterior inclusion probability a variety of measures of resources endowments and the five optimal single models, the paper supports the conclusion that ＂resource curse＂ does not exist in China. The paper then breaks up the sample into west、east and middle area and find that the western region has comparative advantage in the mining industry and is easy to induce ＂resource curse＂.
出处
《兰州财经大学学报》
2016年第4期44-52,共9页
Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"实施自由贸易区战略背景下国际经济波动影响我国经济增长的理论与对策研究"(项目编号:14CJL020)
关键词
资源诅咒
自然禀赋
模型不确定性
贝叶斯模型平均
resource curse
natural endowment
uncertainty of the model
Bayesian model averaging
