基于因子分析的沿海可再生能源开发结构优化模型

Structural optimization model of coastal renewable energy development based on factor analysis

针对沿海可再生能源特点与开发技术和安全要求,系统地分析并选取开发结构优良性指标,在此基础上应用因子分析法从相关性指标中提取综合因子,包括经济因子、技术因子、环境因子和安全因子,作为能源开发结构优化的综合性能度量.以经济成本、碳排放量、能源开发比例组合效用最大为目标函数,从能源、经济、技术、环境和安全五方面构建约束,提出了沿海可再生能源开发结构优化多目标规划模型.以大连为例,得到该地区目标年的最优能源开发结构.研究成果可为可再生能源开发结构规划与政策制定提供参考.

Considering the characteristics of coastal renewable energy and its development technology and safety requirements,the development structure evaluation indexes are proposed and analyzed systematically.Using factor analysis method,common factors are extracted from the indexes for energy development structure optimization as follows：economy factor,technique factor,environment factor and safety factor. A coastal renewable energy development structure multi-objective programming model is suggested so as to improve the combined utility of economic costs,carbon emission and development proportion index with the constraints of five aspects：energy,economy,technology,environment and safety.A case of Dalian is studied with its optimal energy development structure in target years.The findings can provide a reference for the renewable energy planning and policy-making.