大棚草莓产量动态预报模型研究

Dynamic yield model of greenhouse strawberry

基于2010—2014年慈溪市气象局草莓实验大棚的产量和气象要素观测资料,探索实际生产过程中设施草莓产量形成的关键气象因子,并利用一次累加回归分析法构建适宜浙江地区的设施草莓产量动态模型。结果表明,日平均气温、5℃积温、光合有效辐射对浙江省设施草莓产量形成影响显著。不同产果阶段各气象指标(日平均气温、光合有效辐射、辐热积指数)对草莓产量的动态模拟效果存在一定差异,产果初期,日平均气温>辐热积指数≈光合有效辐射;产果盛期和末期,辐热积指数>光合有效辐射>日平均气温;整个生育期,辐热积指数>光合有效辐射>日平均气温。各指标对不同阶段产量模拟精度为:日平均气温表现为产果初期>产果盛期>产果末期;辐热积指数和光合有效辐射的模拟效果时间变化趋势与日平均气温相反;2月份各指标的模拟精度均较低。

In this study,the key meteorological factors affecting strawberry yield were explored based on the strawberry yield and meteorological data observed in the strawberry experiment greenhouses of Cixi Meteorological Bureau from 2010 to 2014. Once accumulated regression analysis method was applied to construct suitable dynamic model for the yield of greenhouse strawberry in Zhejiang Province. The results indicated that the strawberry yield was mainly affected by average daily temperature,accumulated temperature（ 〉5 ℃） and photosynthetic active radiation. There were obvious differences among the simulating accuracy of dynamic yield models built with different meteorological index. During the preliminary stage of strawberry harvest,the model based on T（ daily average temperature） was more acceptable than that based on PTEP（ physiological product of thermal effectiveness） and PAR（ photosynthetically active radiation）. During the other stage of strawberry harvest,the priority of the PTEP-based model was higher than that of PAR-based model,which was more acceptable than the T-based model. During the whole harvest period,the priority level of the models based on PTEP,PAR and T was similar to that during the exuberant and final stage. The simulating accuracy for each model was with obvious variation during different stages. For T-based model,the simulating accuracy during preliminary stage was higher than that during exuberant stage,and that during the final stagewas the lowest. For PTEP and PAR-based model,the trend of accuracy was just opposite to that of T-based model.In February,all the three models were with low simulating accuracy.