中国民航安全发展及展望

An Overview and Prospect of Civil Aviation Safety in China

系统地分析了中国民航安全的发展历程.在快速发展的同时,中国的民航安全水平持续提 升.特别是自改革开放以来,从20世纪80年代初到2015年末,中国的民航安全水平从“六五”（1981 ？1985年）期间的运输航空百万飞行小时重大事故率5.42,发展到“十二五”（2011？2015年）期间的 0.0（5年内未发生运输航空重大事故）;按照近10年（2006？2015年）统计,中国民航运输航空百万飞 行小时重大事故率为0.018,而同期世界平均值为0.24,是中国的13倍多.剖析了中国民航在安全理 念、科学技术、安全管理和政府监管等方面所做的工作和取得的成果.展望和分析了中国民航在未来 发展中所面临的空域资源日趋紧张、国产大飞机新机型应用、低空空域管理改革和通航发展,以及安 全管理效能低下等在中国民航发展中出现的问题和民航安全面临的挑战.

This study aims at systematically describing the cvolvcmcnt of civil aviation safety in China. With a rapid growth, its level of safety has been continuously improved in the past 30 years. The scrious-accidcnt rate per one million flight hours decreased from 5.42 in the period of ＂Sixth Five-year Plan＂ （1981 - 1985） to 0.018 in the period of ＂Twelve Five-year Plan＂ （201 1 - 2015）. In recent 10 years （2006 - 2015） , this indicator is about 0.018 in China, well below the World average level of 0.24 , which is more than 13 times of that of China. This paper summarizes the achievements of the Civil Aviation Administration of China （CAAC.） in the following aspects： safety notion, methods and techniques＇s safety management） and government supervision. ＂Phis paper also provides analysis and perspective of issues and challenges related to civil aviation safety in China＇s including increasing shortage of airspace＇s service of new large aircrafts designed in China, management for low-altitude airspace〉 increased civil aviation, and ineffectiveness of safety management