理性认知西藏投资乘数小于1问题:以1996—2014年为例

The Problem That Investment Multiplier is Less Than 1 in Tibet: During 1996-2014

根据教材上的概念,结合我国统计实践,重新定义了投资乘数。以此定义为主兼用其他方法测算,结果表明1996—2014年西藏投资乘数小于1;通过测算公式追根溯源,直接原因是该区居民边际消费倾向小于边际流入倾向,深层次原因是由于货物和服务净流入而导致该区总需求有较大份额对外漏出。从需求侧看,用行政管辖范围作为口径统计出来生产总值没有包括西藏投资通过需求链拉动的区外生产总值增长部分,因此测算出的投资乘数往往低估该区的投资效益。

According to China’ s statistical practice, this paper redefined the investment multiplier. Based on this definition and used along with other methods of calculation, this paper found that the Tibetan in-vestment multiplier was less than 1 during 1996 -2014. The direct reason is that resident marginal pro-pensity to consume is less than marginal propensity to import in this area. The underlying reason is that in this area the net inflows of goods and services could make total demand large share of external leak. From the perspective of demand,Total output value counted by administrative jurisdiction is not in-cluding the pulled by demand chain part of Gross Domestic Product growth, which tends to devaluate the Tibetan investment benefits.