多元化战略对商业银行盈利和风险水平的影响

The Impact of the Diversification Strategies of Commercial Banks on Profitability and Risk

我国商业银行面对利率市场化、金融脱媒和互联网金融的挑战,综合化经营日趋明显。本文使用我国16家上市商业银行2006-2014年的年度非平衡面板数据,分析多元化战略对商业银行盈利和风险的影响。实证结果表明:转移了表内业务的风险,表外业务多元化会减少银行的风险水平;贷款比例过高,地域多元化并不能真正实现规模效应和范围经济,反而会减少银行盈利能力和增加违约风险水平;资源不合理的使用,收入结构多元化减少了市场数据下的盈利能力和增加银行的风险水平;多元化指标之间存在交互作用,说明存在溢出效应。

Commercial banks of China are facing the challenges of marketization of interest rate,financial disintermediation and Internet Finance,so integrated management has become more obvious. By using the annual unbalanced panel data of 16 domestic banks from 2006 to 2014,this paper analyzes the impact of diversification strategies on profitability and risk. Empirical results show that： since the risk in balance sheet has been transferred,off-balance sheet business would reduce the risk; if loan is high,geographic diversification cannot achieve economies of scale and scope economy,by contrast,it will reduce bank profitability and increase the risk of default; because of the unreasonable use of resources,a diversified income structure will reduce the probability of default under the market data and increase risk; the interaction between diversity indices indicates that spillover effect exists among them.