四川省农业循环经济实证评价与障碍因素分析

Empirical Evaluation and Obstacle Factors Analysis on Development of Agricultural Recycling Economy in Sichuan Province

以四川省为研究对象,首先,采用文献法和Delphi法构建四川省农业循环经济发展评价指标体系;其次,运用AHP法和变异系数法共同确定指标权重系数;最后,用灰色关联度法对2005—2014年四川省农业循环经济发展水平进行评价,并检验各项指标的障碍度。结果表明,四川省农业循环经济发展水平总体呈上升趋势,2014年综合评价系数是2005年的1.76倍,年均增长率为6.77%;经济与社会发展和资源循环利用2项分类指标对四川省农业循环经济发展推动作用明显;对2014年四川省农业循环经济发展阻碍最强的分类指标分别是资源减量投入(48.22%)和资源环境安全(19.27%)。并针对提高四川省农业循环经济发展水平提出了一系列相关措施与建议。

This paper takes Sichuan province as the research object. Firstly, the agricultural recycling economy development evaluation index system in Sichuan province is constructed on the basis of combing literatures and combining with Delphi method. Secondly, the weight coefficient of index is jointly determined by using AHP method and variation coefficient method. Finally, the development level of agricultural recycling economy in Sichuan province is evaluated from 2005 to 2014 by grey correlation degree method, and the obstacle degree of each index is tested. The results show that the overall development level of agricultural recycling economy in Sichuan province shows a rising trend from 2005 to 2014 with an average annual growth rate 6.77%, and the comprehensive evaluation coefficient in 2014 is 1.76 times in 2005. The strongest hinder index of the development of agricultural recycling economy in Sichuan province in 2014 is the factors of resource reduction investment（48.22% ） and the resource and environment security（ 19.27% ）. And a series of related measures and suggestions are put forward to strengthen the agricultural competitiveness of Sichuan province.