耕地数量与农民收入及第一产业的关系研究——以河南省为例

Relationship Between Cultivated Land Quantity and Farmers' Income and Primary Industries—A Case Study of Henan Province

运用协整理论与Grange因果检验等方法,采用河南省1998—2012年时间序列数据,分析了耕地数量与第一产业增加值、农民人均纯收入间关系。结果表明,耕地数量与第一产业增加值、农民纯收入间存在长期均衡关系。第一产业增加值是影响农民纯收入的一个因素,耕地数量对第一产业增加值有较明显的正向促进作用,而对农民纯收入的冲击效应却是负向的。因而,未来应更多关注耕地资源保护、提高耕地利用效益,发展农业特色优势品种,以及拓宽农民增收途径等以促进农业经济发展,增加农民收入。

Based on cointegration theory and Grange causality test,Using time series data from 1998 to 2012 in Henan province,this paper analyzed the relationship between cultivated land quantity and value-added of primary industries and farmers＇ net income. The results showed that one-way causal relationship exists among them. The value-added of primary industries is one of the factors influencing farmers＇ net income,Cultivated land quantity has a significant positive role in promoting primary industries,but has a negative role in farmers＇ net income. So in the future we Should pay more attention to how to protect cultivated land resources,to improve cultivated land utitization,to develop agricultural characteristics advantage varieties and to broaden the way of increasing farmers＇ income to promote rural economic development and to increase farmers＇ income.