摘要
利用小波分析理论对数据处理的优势,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对1997-2013年全国汽车火灾发生次数的数据进行整理分析,并与实际数据比较,在此基础上预测2016-2020年全国的汽车火灾发生次数。结果表明,基于小波分析的灰色系统模型的分析值与实际值吻合较好,比较合理地反映了汽车火灾事故的发展趋势;我国的汽车火灾事故还会持续增多,应从事故多发点进行有效防范。
With the advantage of wavelet analysis in data processing, the gray system GM （1,1） model was used to analyze the car accident number from 1997 to 2013 in China, and compared with the actual data. On this basis, car fire occurrences in China from 2016 to 2020 were predicted. The results showed that the predicted value from gray system based on wavelet analysis fit the actual value well, and reasonably reflected the trends in the car fire accidents. In China, the car fire accidents will continue to increase, and should be prevent from accidentprone points.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第9期1340-1343,共4页
Fire Science and Technology
