我国老年人退休行为的影响因素研究——基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据

An Analysis of the Factors Affecting China's Old Age Retirement: Based on the Data from CHARLS

随着人口老龄化程度的不断提高,我国的劳动供给结构恶化以及养老保障基金缺口增大等问题越加严峻。为应对这些问题,学术界与政界建议推出延迟退休政策。延迟退休政策是否能够达到预期目的,很大程度上取决于具体的政策形式。我国老年人的退休行为究竟受到哪些因素的影响?此问题的答案是制定有效的延迟退休政策的基础和依据。为此,利用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,建立probi t模型,实证研究了非经济类及经济类因素对我国老年人退休行为的影响。结果显示,非经济类因素中教育水平对老年人退休的影响最为明显,经济类影响因素中家庭净收入对老年人退休有显著的激励作用。而且,城市和农村老年人退休行为有显著的差异。

With its aging population growing at a fast pace, China is faced with serious chal- lenges on the issues of deterioration of labor supply structure and widening gap in its pension fund. In order to solve these problems, the academic and governmental circles are proposing the postponed retirement policies. Whether these policies are able to achieve their expected targets or not mainly de- pends on the specific policies. Therefore, we need to know what factors influencing the elderly＇s re- tirement behavior, the answers can be the basis and foundation on which effective retirement policies may be formulated. To this end, by making use of the survey data of CHARLS, this paper establishes a probit model to conduct an empirical study of the impact of non-economic and economic factors on the retirement behavior of the old people. The findings indicate that the education level in the non-e- conomic factors exerts the most obvious effect while the net family income in the economic factors plays a significant role in stimulating their retirement. Besides, there are significant differences be- tween urban and rural old age retirement behaviors.