牡丹初花期与太平洋海温关系及预报分析

Correlation of Peony Florescence with Pacific SST and Its Long-term Forecast

对牡丹初花期和太平洋海温资料进行统计分析得出:牡丹初花期偏早和偏晚年份其前期太平洋海温场有明显差异;用1964—2009年牡丹初花期序列与太平洋海温进行相关分析,得到30个优势相关区,其中有4个是正相关区,其余为负相关区,正、负相关区出现有一定的时间连续性和区域性,正相关区出现于冬季太平洋北部高纬地区,负相关区出现于赤道北太平洋海区东部并向西向北传播;从优势相关区中筛选格点资料作为预报因子,建立牡丹初花期长期预报方程,最长预报时效超过140 d。经几年试用效果较好,本方法对制作花卉花期长期预报有一定参考价值。

Statistical analysis was conducted on the historical data of the florescence of peony, and the sea surface temperature （SST）of the Pacific Ocean. It is found that ,the Pacific SST field before peony florescence showed great difference from the year when peony had an early florescence to the year when peony had a delayed florescence. Correlation analysis over the data of peony florescence and the Pacific SST from 1964 to 2009 showed thirty regions with strong correlation, of which four were positive correlation, and the rest were negative. The correlated regions appear on specific locations in the Pacific over a certain period of time. The positively correlated regions occur in high latitude area of the Pacific during winter,while the negatively correlated regions showed up in the east part of the north Pacific near the equator, and spread towards the west and the north. Equations for long-term forecast of peony florescence were constructed,based on the forecast factors derived from the data of highly relevant regions. The effective forecast period of current model is over 140 days. The model is validated through comparison with data in the past few years ,and showed good performance in long-term forecast of the florescence of flowers.