国际原油价格起伏对我国宏观经济的影响

How Chinese Macro-Economy Responses When World Oil Prices Go Up and Down

2008年以来,国际原油价格的波动愈发剧烈,其间我国的物价水平、产出水平和货币总量等宏观指标也发生了较大变化。基于国际油价的涨跌对我国宏观经济的影响作用日益增强,建立结构向量自回归模型,考察国际油价波动是否为我国主要宏观经济变量,并分别将油价上涨以及下跌的波动作为研究对象,检验国际油价上涨和下跌对我国经济影响程度的区别。通过对结构向量自回归模型的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解等实证检验得出国际油价涨跌对我国宏观经济的不同影响效果,并针对实证结论提出相关建议。

Since 2008,the world crude oil price has experienced several shape fluctuations,while Chinese macro-indicators,such as domestic production,consumer price level and money supply,also changed for noticeable degree. Realizing the growing impact of the world oil price on our national economy,firstly set up Structural Vector Auto-Regression model to examine whether and how Chinese macro-indicators response the shock of world oil price,specifically when oil price goes up and down. Based on the empirical results of Granger causality test,IRF and variance decomposition,it concluded that world oil price does influence Chinese national economy and there are unequal effects of oil price increases and decrease. At last,this article also offered several suggestions for government aiming at the conclusion.