基于集对分析思想的输变电工程造价风险评价

Power Transmission Project Cost Risk Assessment Based on Set Pair Analysis Idea

输变电工程的投资大、建设期长、技术复杂及不确定因素多等特点决定了其在造价管理过程中存在诸多风险。通过分析输变电造价风险的主要影响因素,构建了三级造价风险指标。在集对分析法(SPA)的基础上,运用GSPA-IAHP主观赋值权重。引入了联系度(IDO)计算出输变电造价风险指标值,并对风险等级进行分析。最后结合江苏省盐城输变电案例进行了验证,可为输变电工程造价风险管理提供决策依据。

The large investment in power transmission project,the long construction and techni-cally complex and uncertain factors and other characteristics determine its cost,there are many risk management process.The thesis analyzes the main factors of risk of transmission and distribu-tion costs,builds the triple cost risk evaluation index system.Based on the theory of Set Pair Analysis,it uses the improved level of analysis-GSPA-IAHP subjective to assign weights.And introduced on the basis of the degree of contact（IDO） measurement method,the establishment of a comprehensive assessment model based on SPA method of power transmission project risk,it draw the appropriate risk level comprehensive evaluation.Finally,combining Yancheng in Jiangsu Province Power Transmission Case empirical validation,it provide a basis for decision making for the cost risk managers of transmission process,with a strong practicability.