大陆赴台旅游人次数的趋势、季节周期及预测分析

Trend, Seasonal Periodicity and Prediction of Tourists from Manland to Taiwan

大陆赴台湾旅游人次数的研究对台湾方面制定更贴近实际的旅游政策有重要的意义。对此利用2008年以来配额性质下的大陆赴台游客数据,运用季节ARIMA模型和季节指数模型,分析数据的趋势、季节周期并以此进行预测。分析得到现阶段台湾的开放性政策是大陆赴台游人次数的长期趋势决定因素,旅游人次数存在显著的季节周期性特征,4-5月和11月左右是大陆赴台旅游高峰,1-2月和9月是旅游低谷。大陆赴台旅游人次数仍处于增长期,配额制度一定程度上限制了大陆游客赴台游规模。

The number of tourists from Mainland of China to Taiwan has important meaning on making tourism policies. The paper uses the seasonal ARIMA model and the seasonal index model to analyze the data of tourists since 2008 under the quota policy to predict the trends. The results show that the current open policy to Taiwan is the determining factor for the number of tourists in a long-term trend. The tourist data also has significant seasonal cycle characteristics. The data from April to May and November, reaches the peak. The numbers of tourists go to the trough in January, February and September. The tourist trend is still in a growth phase, and the quota system limits the size of tourists traveling to Taiwan to some extent.