济南城市轨道交通近期建设规模需求研究

Study on Short-term Demand of Construction Scale of Urban Rail Transit in Jinan

城市轨道交通近期建设规模对城市经济社会发展具有重要影响,而对合理建设规模的研究仍处于探索阶段。利用主成分分析法构建近年来北京市轨道交通、经济、社会发展指数,揭示三者之间的数量关系。借鉴北京市轨道交通建设历程,以及轨道交通、经济、社会之间的函数关系,依据济南市城市总体规划及国民经济发展规划的相关指标,预测2020年济南市轨道交通建设需求规模。研究结果表明,济南市轨道交通近期建设规模偏小,下一期建设规划应适当增加线网规模,以满足济南经济社会发展。

The short-term construction scale of urban rail transit has an important influence on the economic and social development of city, but the study on reasonable construction scale is still at the exploring stage.The principal component analysis method is used to build the rail transit, economic and social development indexes of Beijing in recent years, and to reveal the numerical relationship among the three indexes. Referring the rail transit construction process of Beijing and the functional relationship among the rail transit, economy and society, and based on the Jinan City Urban Overall Planning and the relative indexes of the national economic development planning, the article forecasts the rail transit construction demand scale of Jinan City in 2020. The study result shows that the short-term construction scale of rail transit is small in Jinan, and the next-term construction planning should be properly increased by the scale of line network so as to satisfy the economic and social development of Jinan.