基于主成分分析的节能环保产业产值预测

Forecast of the Output Value of ECEP Industry Based on PCA Technology

影响节能环保产业发展的因素众多。本文运用主成分分析（PCA）法对相关指标进行分析研究，在此基础上，选取三个主要影响指标构建山东省节能环保产业投资的多元线性回归预测模型，并据此对该产业发展状况进行了预测。结果表明，“十三五”期间，山东省节能环保产业发展态势良好，到2020年，全省节能环保产业投资需求量将达到2034亿元，总产值将超过1万亿元。

There are many factors that affect the development of Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection （ECEP） industry. In this paper, the Principal Component Analysis （PCA） method is used to analyze the relevant indicators. Based on this, the three main influence indexes were selected to construct the multi linear regression forecast model of ECEP industry investment in Shandong province, and according to this, the development of the industry is predicted.The results show that, in ＂Thirteen Five＂ period, Shandong Province ECEP industry will develop well. By 2020, the provincial ECEP industry investment demand will reach 203.4 billion RMB, and the total output value will exceed one thousand billion RMB.