基于协同论的金融产业系统运营状态评价研究

The Evaluation of Financial Industry Systems' Operational Status Based on Synergetic Theory

金融产业系统具有复杂性和内部交互性,可划分为银行、证券和保险3个子系统,采用协同论和灰色关联理论,对这3个金融子系统内部和金融产业系统的运营状况进行协同评价。结果表明,2004～2013年三大金融子系统中,证券子系统的协同运营状态最好,银行子系统其次,保险子系统最差;而金融产业系统的运营状态处于较低水平,协同度在零上下波动,只有在2006～2007年和2009～2010年实现协调有序运营,其余年间均未实现有序运营。要想实现金融产业高效协同发展,需要金融产业所有子系统的运营状态都提高。

To reveal the complexity of the financial industry system and the interaction of its subsystems,it divides the financial industry system into banking,securities and insurance subsystems and evaluates the operational efficiency of the subsystems and the system based on synergetic theory and grey relevant model.The results reveal that from 2004 to 2013,the security subsystem is the most efficient,the banking system is the second,and the insurance system is the worst.Currently,the coordinated development of the financial industry system is in a low state.Only from 2006 to 2007and from 2009 to 2010,the financial industry system is efficient and coordinated well.To realize the efficient operation of the financial industry,all the subsystems need to be improved.