金砖五国人口老龄化、公共养老金支出及其改革策略分析

The Analysis on the Ageing Population,Public Pension Expenditure and Reform Strategy of BRICS

“金砖五国”是世界新兴市场经济体，在社会经济转变过程中，五国都建立了各具特色的养老保险制度。人口老龄化导致公共养老金支出水平不断上升，严重影响养老保险制度的财务收支平衡及可持续性。本文构建模型对2015—2050年五国公共养老金支出水平进行了预测。结果发现：五国未来公共养老金支出水平都将逐步提高，老龄化程度较重的俄罗斯、中国和巴西公共养老金支出水平快速提高且财政负担不断加重，而老龄化程度较轻的印度和南非公共养老金支出水平较低且增长相对平缓。在此基础上，提出了“金砖五国”扩大覆盖面、调整养老金替代率、逐步提高退休年龄等改革策略。

In the process of social and economic transformation, BRICS countries have set up their own old-age pension system as the world＇s emerging market economies. The ageing population will enlarge the public pension expenditure, which will bring a great impact on the financial balance and sustainability of pension system. This article establishes a model and predicts the level of public pension expenditure of BRICS from 2015 to 2050. The results showeds that the public pension spending will increase gradually in five countries, the level of public pension spending will rapidly increase and aggravate the financial burden of pension expenditure in Russia, China and Brazil which the ageing is more serious, while the level of public pension spending is relatively lower and moderate growth in India and South Africa which the aging is relatively small. On this basis, this paper presents some reform strategies of pension system in BRICS, such as increasing coverage rate, adjusting the replacement rate of pension and maintain a modest level, and increasing the retirement age progressively in five countries.