美国量化宽松货币政策对中国的溢出效应研究

Research on the Spillover Effects of the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy in the United States on China

本文采用全球向量自回归模型(GVAR模型),选取24个代表性的国家和经济体实证考察了美国量化宽松货币政策对中国的溢出效应。不仅考察了美国量化宽松货币政策对中国的直接溢出效应,即集中分析美国货币供应量的变动对中国经济各方面的影响,以此衡量中国经济受到冲击;而且评价了美国量化宽松货币政策对中国的间接溢出效应,即从美国整体经济情况变化、对发达国家政策示范效应、对发展中国家冲击压力和国际经济波动等4个角度,分析了美国量化宽松货币政策实施之后,由于政策引致的全球宏观经济环境变化对中国经济可能带来的间接影响。此外,还对美国量化宽松货币政策的退出进行了展望。

This paper investigates the spillover effects of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States on China by using the GVAR model and 24-representative-countries sample or economic body sample, it examines not only the direct spillover effect of the U. S. quantitative easing monetary policy on China, which focuses on the analysis of the impact of the US money supply change to China＇s economy, but also the indirect spillover effects of the quantitative easing monetary policy on China, that is, from the perspectives of the changes in the United States whole economic situation, the demonstration effect of the policies in developed countries, the impact pressure on developing countries and international economic fluctuations. The paper evaluates if the global macroeeonomie environment changes due to the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy leads to indirect influence to China＇s economy. In addition, this paper also shows an outlook about the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States.