路面飞车抢夺案件简易数学模型构建及分析

On the Construction and Analysis of the Simple Mathematical Model of Motorist Snatching Cases

飞车抢夺犯罪作为抢夺犯罪的特殊形式,因其隐蔽性强、随机性大、作案时间短,逃跑迅速等特点,极易造成人身财产损害。通过构建飞车抢夺的简易数学模型进行量化分析发现,警方对小额现金飞车抢夺案件的破案率在28.57%,一般抢夺案件的破案率在23.53%,行人携带财物不超过310元,有利于降低飞车抢夺犯罪率;而对尾随银行取款人的飞车抢夺案件,警方应在防范上下工夫。

The motorist snatching crime, as a special form of forcible seizure crime, is ape to causing personal injuries and property damage owing to its concealment, randomness, short time of crime and rapid escape. On the simple mathematical model of motorist snatching crime, the quantitative analysis indicates that the detection rate of the petty motorist snatching cases is 28.57% while that of general forcible seizure cases is 23.53%. The property value which is less than 310 yuan helps to reduce the rate of robbery crime. The police should focus on motorist snatching cases where criminals follow bank tellers.