福建省经济潜在增长率测算研究

A Research on Calculating the Potential GDP Growth Rate of Fujian Province

运用生产函数法测算福建省1978—2014年的潜在产出和潜在增长率,分析影响福建省经济增长的要素变动趋势,并对全要素生产率、资本和劳动力的增长率以及福建省未来十年的经济增速进行预测。研究发现,1979—2014年福建省平均潜在GDP增长率处于高速增长区间。然而,近年来福建省潜在GDP增长率有下滑的趋势。分析表明,未来福建省技术进步率增速将有所加快,资本存量和劳动力的增速将有所下降,从而福建省未来十年经济增速将由高速增长转换成中速增长。

This paper estimates the potential product and the potential GDP growth rate of Fujian from the year 1978 to 2014 with Production Function Method.Meanwhile,this paper analyzes the change trend on the key element of the economic growth of Fujian province and predicts the growth rate of advances in technology,capital and labor.Finally,this paper predicts the GDP growth rate of Fujian in the next decade.On the basis of calculating we can reach the following conclusionsrfrom 1979 to 2014,the average potential GDP growth rate of Fujian is in high speed,however,the potential product growth rate of Fujian has a downward trend for the past few years.Based on analysis,it shows that the speed of future technological progress rate will be accelerated,and the speed of the capital and labor will be decreased;thus the economic growth mode will be transformed from driving on inputs to rely on technological progress in the future.With the economic growth mode transformation,the GDP growth rate will change from high speed to medium speed.