人民币汇率不完全和非对称传递——理论、特征及对策分析

RMB Incomplete and Asymmetric Pass-through——Analysis of Theory,Property and Strategy

汇率传递效应是国际经济学研究和宏观经济政策管理的核心命题之一。文章通过理论综述和统计分析发现,人民币汇率传递效应表现为明显的不完全性和非对称性,能够为人民币汇率与国际贸易收支关系、贸易条件变化和通货膨胀变化提供一定的解释力,而2015年8月人民币进入贬值区间以来人民币汇率传递效应发生了一系列新变化。文章提出新常态下宏观经济政策调整应重点关注人民币汇率不完全和非对称传递的可能影响,认为应完善人民币汇率市场决定机制、有序推进资本账户开放;坚持稳健货币政策基调、提高通胀控制和促进经济增长能力;加快供给侧结构改革步伐、促进经济发展方式转型升级。

Exchange rate pass-through effect is a core issue of international economy and macro-economy. Through theoretical summary and statistical analysis, this paper studies RMB＇s incomplete and asymmetric pass -through. This paper could explain the relationship of RMB exchange rate and international balance of payment, terms of trade, inflation to a certain extent. In August 2015 RMB becomes depreciating, since then, a series of change of RMB＇s exchange rate pass-through happened. This paper presents the possible influence of RMB＇s exchange rate incomplete and asymmetrical pass-through that macro-economical policy maker should pay attention to. This paper also gives some policy advices.