农村社会保障对消费结构影响的门槛效应——基于PSTR模型的分析

The Threshold Effect of Rural Social Security Impacts on the Consumption Structure——Based on the PSTR Model

笔者基于1998年~2012年30个省份的面板数据,采用面板平滑转换（PSTR）模型分析了农村社会保障对农村居民消费结构的影响及特征。研究结果表明,农村社会保障对农村居民消费结构的影响是非线性的,呈现显著的门槛特征;在相应门槛值前后,农村社会保障对农村居民食品消费、交通和通讯消费的影响始终表现为促进,且促进效应随着自身发展水平的提升而逐渐增强,而农村社会保障对农村居民衣着消费的影响由抑制转变为促进;在自身发展水平较高的地区,农村社会保障能显著促进农村居民居住消费、文教娱乐用品消费及家庭设备和服务消费的增长,而不论处在何种发展水平区间,农村社会保障对农村居民医疗保健消费、其他商品和服务消费的促进效应还未能有效显现。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2012. This article use PSTR model analyzes the influence of rural social security to the rural residents＇ consumption structure in China. The results show that the effects of social security expenditure on rural consumption structure is nonlinear,which presents the threshold characteristics. Before and after the threshold value,the effects of social security expenditure on food consumption、transportation and communication consumption is promoting,and the higher rural financial development level is,the stronger the effect will be; the effect on clothing consumption is from inhibiting to promote. the effect on living consumption、education and entertainment consumption、household equipment and services consumption are promoting only in the higher level of social security development. But the effect on medical care and other goods and services consumption are not obvious.