美国对华反倾销对中国对美出口风险率的影响——基于生存分析方法的经验检验

A Study of the Effects of America's Antidumping to China on Estimated Hazard of China Exporting to America——An Empirical Test Based on the Survival Analysis

笔者使用1990年~2006年HS10分位的贸易数据以及美国对华反倾销产品层面的数据,采用绘图法考察了美国对华反倾销对中国对美出口风险率的影响,结果表明：美国对华反倾销政策在初裁定阶段显著提高了其对美出口风险率,在终裁定阶段对出口风险率的影响不明显;中位数以下的反倾销税率对出口风险率的提高效应不大,但影响时间长,中位数以上的反倾销税率刚好相反,在初裁定阶段大幅度提高了其出口风险率,在终裁定阶段反而降低了出口风险率;美国对华反倾销政策对钢铁业、化工业以及机电业三大行业初裁定阶段出口风险率的提高效应非常大。

This paper uses exporting data at the HS10-digit product level from 1990- 2006 and data of USA antidumping to China to study the effect of U. S. AD cases on estimated hazard of China exporting to U. S. with plotting method,we reach the conclusion,first of all,U. S. AD cases to China significantly increased the estimated hazard of China exporting to U. S. during the preliminary phase,the increasing effect is also in the final phase,but not obvious. Secondly,cases with below median duties having a more persistent effect through the case,while cases with above median duties have much larger effect during the preliminary phase,but have opposite effect in the final phase. Finally,the effect on the estimated hazard is very large during the preliminary in the steel,chemical,mechanical and electrical industry.