克强指数视角下中国全要素生产率再估算及收敛性研究——基于中国省际面板数据

A Study of the Estimation of Total Factor Productivity in China and its Convergence from the Perspective of Li Keqiang Index——Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

英国著名政经杂志《经济学人》曾提出：克强指数比官方GDP更能客观反映中国经济的现实状况。笔者以此为依托,利用克强指数替代GDP作为产出变量,从传统和质量两个视角进行分析研究。笔者采用DEA-Malmquist模型对中国29个省区2000年~2012年的全要素生产率进行再估算,通过横向和纵向比较,分析了区域全要素生产率的差异及其收敛性特征。研究表明：相对于传统视角,质量视角下的全要素生产率显著降低,这进一步验证了克强指数下无论传统还是质量的TFP都要比GDP下TFP描述得准确、合理。技术进步成了区域间克强指数下质量TFP差异的主因。

The famous British political economics magazine＂The Economist＂has proposed： I Keqiang Index can objectively reflect the reality of China＇s economy more than the official GDP. So based on that,we use the Li Keqiang index instead of GDP as output variables in this paper,and analysis from two perspectives of tradition and quality. In this paper,the DEA-Malmquist model is used to estimate the total factor productivity of the 29 regions of China in the 2000- 2012 years,and through horizontal and vertical comparison,we analyze the regional differences in total factor productivity and its convergence characteristics. It shows that the total factor productivity in the perspective of quality is significantly lower,and this further validates the TFP of the Li Keqiang index than GDP description is more accurate,reasonable; technological progress has become the main reason affecting quality perspective under the Li Keqiang index of total factor productivity; through the test of convergence,we find that total factor productivity among different regions exist βconvergence without convergence.