基于非平稳面板数据的经济增长与用水量关系分析

Analysis of Relationship between Economic Growth and Water Resources Utilization Based on Instable Panel Data

应用北方地区分省面板数据构造综列协整模型,定量分析人均GDP与总用水量、工业用水量、生活用水量与生态用水量的长期均衡关系,并基于广义脉冲响应模型考察经济增长与用水量短期动态调节。最后用方差分解对水资源各用水量对经济增长互相之间的贡献率做出分析。结果显示:经济的增长与用水量的增长之间存在一定的相互促进作用,其中经济增长对农业用水量和生态用水量的促进作用较大。

In this paper, the provincial panel data in northern area were used to build column cointegration model, the longterm equilibrium relationships between GDP per capita and total water consumption, industrial water consumption, domestic water consumption, ecological water consumption were quantitatively analyzed, and the short-term dynamic adjustment of economic growth and water consumption was investigated based on the generalized impulse response model, finally the contribution rates of each water consumption factors to economic growth were analyzed by variance decomposition. The results showed that there was a certain mutual promoting effect between economic growth and water consumption growth, and economic growth bad a stronger promoting effect on agricultural water consumption and ecological water consumption.