中国经济增长率的分解--基于要素分配参数的讨论

China's Economic Growth Decomposition——by discussing the parameters of factors distlibution

本文基于CES生产函数,无论要素分配参数是否为常数,均可推导出经济增长来源于中性技术进步、偏向性技术进步、资本和劳动的贡献度之和;TFP增长率在数值上等于中性技术进步和偏向性技术进步的贡献度之和。基于此,本文利用我国1978—2014年的数据进行实证分析,结果显示:我国资本-劳动之间呈互补关系。当分配参数为常数时,我国主要依靠要素投入实现经济增长,同时,偏向性技术进步是TFP增长减缓的一个主要原因;当分配参数不为常数时,经济增长主要体现在TFP增长上,尤其是偏向性技术进步。因此,在新常态下,要实现增长动力的转换,必须从投入驱动的经济增长转向创新驱动的经济增长,即通过技术进步实现生产效率的提高。

In the CES production function, regardless of whether the parameter is a constant element distribution, economic growth can be deduced from the contribution of the neutral technical progress, biased technological progress, capital and labor. TFP growth in value equals to the sum of the contribution of neutral technical progress and biased technological progress. Basing on Chinese industrial data to empirical econometric analysis from 1978 to 2011. The results show that there is a complementary relationship between capital and labor in China. When elements distribution parameters are constants, China mainly relies on factor inputs to achieve economic growth, and TFP growth slows due to the hiased technological progress. When elements distribution parameters are not constants, economic growth is mainly reflected in the TFP growth, especially biased technological progress. Therefore, in order to achieve growth momentum conversion in the new normal, China must turn to innovation-driven economic growth from investment-driven economic growth, and achieve production efficiencies through technological progress.