民族地区FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的相关性研究——基于广西1990-2013的实证分析

The Correlation of FDI Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Ethnic Minority Areas—Based on An Empirical Analysis of Guangxi during the Years 1990 to 2013

随着经济全球化与国际投资活动的纵深发展,并随着中国-东盟自由贸易区以及北部湾经济区的快速发展,国际贸易与投资对民族地区广西产生了重要影响。文章采用1990—2013年相关数据,通过图表等形式分别从总量、比重等方面对民族地区广西FDI与国际贸易的现状进行分析,总结出二者发展的特点。同时利用计量回归模型,分别探讨了FDI流入、地区经济增长对广西进出口额分别所产生的影响,以及分析了FDI、进出口贸易总额对于广西经济增长所产生的具体影响。从三者之间的相关关系来看,FDI流入对广西经济增长十分乏力,出现负向效应,并进一步分析了可能原因,进而提出了相应的政策建议。

International trade and investment have been two major topics in the field of international economics. They are also two main ways to deepen foreign economic ties. With the rapid development of the China—ASEAN free trade area and the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,international trade and investment have had an important influence on the ethnic areas of Guangxi. Guangxi is a frontier and coastal minority area,and as well as an important window opening on to the ASEAN economic sphere and economic hinterland. It has great power and vitality for economic development within the ASEAN economic sphere. However,Guangxi,if compared with domestic developed areas,is a relatively backward region within China's economy. Its level for utilizing FDI( Foreign Direct Investment) lags behind,and its foreign trade volume has definitely lagged far behind that in the more developed coastal provinces. This has severely restricted the economic and social transformation of the Guangxi,and is an important obstacle for realizing a 'well- off 'society in ethnic areas. In recent years,resulting in the increasing external dependency in ethnic areas,the development of foreign investment has kept steady. This has played an important role in promoting technological progress and adjusting the industrial structure in ethnic areas. At the same time,foreign investment has also increased the speed of the ethnic minority areas' ability to absorb advanced technology and management experience. This,in turn,has had great significance for further exploring international markets. However,the various regions in China have differences in their utilization of FDI and foreign trade,so,effective an evaluation for exploring foreign trade and FDI has had a specific effect on the economic growth in ethnic areas,which can provide certain reference points for ethnic minority areas to formulate economic policy. Based on the relevant data of exports, imports and economic growth collected between 1990 and 2013 for Guangxi,and using statistical analysis and the econometric regression method,this article studies the relationship between FDI,foreign trade and economic growth in ethnic minority areas of Guangxi.I. The development situation of FDI for Guangxi In general,since 1982,FDI in Guangxi has been gradually realized. Guangxi's actual use of foreign capital can be roughly divided into four stages: the beginning period from 1982 to 1991 when,overall,the total quantity of FDI was very little. The second period is from 1992 to 1998.This is a stage of rapid development. The third stage goes from 1999 to 2004. During this period,the trend of FDI was one of decline. The fourth stage begins after the year of 2005. During this stage,there was once again rapid development.If we look at the proportion of FDI in relationship with the whole country,the proportion of FDI is still not very high. Although it did show a trend of rising fluctuations,if we calculate its annual rate of fluctuation,its level of fluctuation is very big. In the recent decade,there are three years in which the annual growth rate FDI of Guangxi reached more than 40%,and two years in which the annual decline rate of FDI was more than 20%,.Therefore,its fluctuation in annual increase or decrease is much larger than that of the level of the whole country. Moreover,there are six years in which Guangxi's trends of increase or decrease differ from those of the whole country.II. The development of foreign trade in Guangxi As a coastal region in the Southwest frontier,Guangxi is an important Chinese port for developing import- export trade with Southeast Asia.Guangxi has a long history of import- export trade. Since China's period of reform and opening up,Guangxi's trade volume has rapidly developed.If we look at the distribution of the import and export market,in recent years,Guangxi's export market tends to be diversified. However,the export market is still too concentrated. Especially in recent years,the exports to Asia account for about half of the total amount of exports. At the same time,with the speeding up of the construction of the China- ASEAN free trade area,and with the constant improvement of trading conditions, the volume of import- export trade between Guangxi and ASEAN are increasing overall. ASEAN has become one of the main import- export markets of Guangxi,and has become the main growth engine to promote trade.Seen from the point of internal,transverse development,Congzuo city,a traditional strong trade city in Guangxi,plays an important role in import- export trade development,and in recent years,has occupied a position of absolute advantage. In terms of trade exports,Congzuo,Nanning,and Beihai are in the dominant position in Guangxi;But,in terms of import trade,the data show that Congzuo,Fangchenggang,and Qinzhou are in the dominant position. This has a certain relevance to the traditional ports. Generally speaking,trade in northern Guangxi is relatively backward,and that of Congzuo,Nanning and Beihai is relatively well developed.III. The relationship among FDI,import and export trade and economic growth in Guangxi By combining the variable data from 1990 to2013,and judging from the results of correlation analysis,the correlation between the four variables,including GDP,FDI,export and import,is relatively large. Using the OLS estimation method,the results of the regression analysis of FDI shows that the import- export trade has had a positive impact on Guangxi's economic growth,while FDI inflows has had a negative impact on its economic growth.This is contradictory to the traditional theory that FDI inflows' promote economic growth. However,for Guangxi's ethnic areas,the main reasons for the appearance of this kind of phenomenon are as follows: 1. Seen from FDI data, the level of Guangxi's utilization of foreign capital in recent years is low,and far from that of developed areas;2. Seen from the quality of foreign capitals,the level is also low. For instance,there are few large scale foreign- investment projects, and project support capability ability is weak; 3. Seen from the distribution location of foreign capital, the choice of Guangxi concerning foreign capitals is relatively scattered,resulting in a low effect of the urban agglomeration economy. At the same time,due to the focus of the introduction of foreign capital in the coastal cities,the regional concentration is not strong enough. Thus,it has failed to form core urban agglomerations,which objectively restricts the introduction of key foreign projects and high- tech projects.IV. Conclusions and suggestions Based on the relevant data for Guangxi from1990 to 2013,and through statistical analysis and the econometric model,this article verifies the re-lationship between foreign trade,FDI and economic growth. The results prove that foreign trade is a powerful impetus for the economic growth of Guangxi. The regression analysis of the influence of FDI and total import- export trade on economic growth of Guangxi shows that FDI inflows have had a negative effect on the economic growth of Guangxi,However,the effect is very weak. Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions.1. Actively integrate into the 'Pearl River Delta'economic sphere,and create conditions for the further introduction of foreign investment On one hand,the local government of Guangxi should actively do well trans- provincial industrial projects,and construct a good environment for economic cooperation; On the other hand,the government should actively create a good ecological environment for the market,and establish a unified,efficient and orderly market environment for cooperation and competition; and,through the formulation of relevant policies encourage the southeastern area of Guangxi to establish closer economic and trade relations with the 'Pearl River Delta'.2. Seize the period of strategic opportunities of B&R,focus on improving the quality and level of FDI utilization Under the new situation of the 'new normal'and the period of strategic opportunities of B&R( one belt and one road),Guangxi should fully seize this strategic opportunity,and build a maritime silk road creating a large southwestern window in the 21 st century. The local government should continue to build up industrial policy to attract related foreign investment,promote the scale and the level of foreign investment, improve the quality and efficiency of the utilization of foreign investment,make good overall planning for industry,and guide foreign investment to the pillar industries,such as the dominating industries,modern service industry, and tourism, and, especially guide them to the cities and counties which havegood infrastructure so as to speed up the development of county economy.3. Actively explore the international market,and promote the diversification of import- export trade In comparison with other ethnic areas,Guangxi is the only ethnic minority autonomous region which has the advantages of both coastal and border areas,as well as areas along a river. Hence,geographically,it has a strong advantage. Guangxi should take the initiative to strengthen connections with others economic zones,explore the international market actively,strengthen and deepen cooperation with Southeast Asia,Hong Kong and other Asian countries,and gradually form a market structure supported by members of the market of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations( ASEAN),and,distributed in a balanced way by the Asia- Pacific countries and developing countries so as to promote the diversification of trade market.